Taxi Uncle Theory (Evolved!)

The "Taxi Uncle" Indicator has evolved.

In the financial world, there is a famous anecdote about Joe Kennedy exiting the stock market just before the 1929 crash because a shoeshine boy gave him stock tips. 

In Singapore, we have our own version: The Taxi Uncle Theory.

The logic was simple: When your driver, who is focused on the road, starts pitching you on specific penny stocks, the market is likely overheated.

But as I observe the landscape today, I believe the indicator has shifted. The Taxi Uncle has been replaced by a new demographic.

Enter: The "Yoga Class" Indicator.

Lately, I’ve noticed a shift in conversations among the "active ager" demographic—the ladies often seen in athleisure, heading to or from their morning wellness classes. These are savvy, well-resourced individuals who control significant household capital.

Previously, these post-yoga chats were about holidays, children, or perhaps safe dividend stocks. But recently? The conversation has pivoted to high-growth tech equities, leverage, and the latest "hot" ticker symbols.

Why does this matter?

It’s not about who is talking; it’s about how they are talking. When investing shifts from a disciplined, boring process to a casual topic of excitement—discussed as easily as a yoga pose or a brunch spot—it suggests that Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) has permeated the general public.

Investing can be simple, but it’s not easy. 

When it feels "easy" to everyone around you, that is usually the time to exercise the most caution.

So, if you hear the lady on the mat next to you giving price targets on volatile tech stocks... take a breath. Stick to your asset allocation. And remember that the best investments are usually the ones that let you sleep well at night, not just the ones that sound good over coffee.

Has anyone else noticed a shift in who is giving out "hot tips" lately?

PS: For those interested, the original theory is named "The shoeshine boy theory"!