"Jason, should I move to cash and wait for the dust to settle?"
I have fielded this question multiple times over the past month. The market is volatile. The headlines are scary. (a 2% drop in the span of a few minutes is enough to wake anyone up!) The instinct to "protect" your capital by exiting is strong.
But in my 4 years at Syfe handling and managing clients, I have learned that "waiting for clarity" or the more common "I'll get back in when the timing is right" is often the most expensive strategy of all.
The Math of Missing Out
Data from the last 20 years of the S&P 500 tells a brutal story:
If you stayed fully invested, your average annual return was roughly 9.8%.
If you tried to time the market and missed just the 10 best days, your return drops to 5.6%. (That's more than a 40% reduction in returns!)
Miss the best 30 days? You are arguably in negative territory. (Don't forget about the silent killer of portfolio returns - Inflation!)
I like this saying
"Don't try to dodge the raindrops. Build a house that can withstand the storm."
My most successful clients understand two things:
1. Appropriately taking on risk is the price of admission for superior returns.
2. The "Best Days" often happen right after the "Worst Days." If you are out for the drop, you are likely out for the recovery.
At Syfe, we don't guess market direction. We manage the risks through proper Asset Allocation and consistent Rebalancing. When the market dips, we don't sell; we continue to invest in quality assets at a discount.
Rich is having money. Wealthy is having a plan. Stick to the plan.
Are you positioned for the recovery, or sitting on the sidelines?